ANZ Property Focus

ANZ Property Focus assesses the state of the property market in New Zealand, providing investors and prospective homeowners with an independent appraisal of recent developments.

2025 editions

March 2025

The housing market continued to warm in February with house prices posting another monthly gain while seasonally adjusted sales volumes returned to growth. The strong flow of new listings onto the market continued, and the relative supply-demand imbalance is likely to restrain house price growth in the near term. We continue to expect price momentum to remain sluggish over coming months as a soft labour market weighs on household confidence. That said, there are early signs of stabilisation in the labour market, which should support momentum later this year, though for now households remain in a cautious mood.


February 2025

The housing market started 2025 where it left off in 2024. House prices lifted modestly in January; sales volumes dipped but the upward trend remains in place. Supply is responding to firmer demand: new listings surged in January. That will keep the level of stock on the market elevated and restrain house price growth in the near term. We continue to expect momentum to build over the year ahead, with the recovery to accelerate in the second half of the year. While purchasing affordability has improved, enabling a recovery, affordability remains very stretched compared to history. That’s likely to limit the extent to which house prices can outpace incomes in the medium term, provided new housing supply picks up moving forward.


January 2025

The seasonally adjusted REINZ House Price Index lifted for a second consecutive month in December – the third lift in four months – signalling the housing market stabilised to end 2024. However, underlying momentum in the market certainly isn’t suggesting the market is about to take off, with improving sales volumes being offset by a large backlog of stock on the market. Investor activity continues to lift, while owner-occupier activity remains relatively subdued, a reflection of the lack of churn in the market amidst the stock overhang, which is reducing housing market mobility. We continue to forecast a 6% rise in house prices over the year ahead, made up of a slow start to the year and a more meaningful upswing in house prices in the second half of 2025.