ANZ Business Outlook survey

ANZ's Business Outlook survey shows the results of a monthly survey including hundreds of businesses nationwide. 



About the survey

ANZ Business Outlook analyses where the economy will be going over the next 12 months. The publication is written for business people who can see at a glance how business confidence is stacking up, what export sales are up to, how the labour market is doing, and more.

The reports are available to read on screen or browse in a PDF format. You can view a PDF version of the survey questionnaire that we send to our respondents and the background information about the survey. 



The ANZ Business Outlook is a key leading barometer for the economy, relying on the input of New Zealand businesses which has proven to be very adept at picking economic developments.


Keen to take part?

If you would like to be part of the ANZ Business Outlook survey, please email nzeconomics@anz.com, giving your email address, industry and the major region you operate in, we would love to hear your views.

2024 editions

December 2024

Business confidence eased 3 points to +62 in December, but expected own activity rose 2 points to +50, and past own activity (the best GDP indicator) jumped 10 points to 0. Past employment fell 1 point to -13. Pricing indicators and inflation expectations were little changed, but there was a surprising 7-point jump in cost expectations from a net 63% to a net 70% expecting higher costs in the next three months.


November 2024

Business confidence eased 1 point to +65 in November, but expected own activity rose 2 points to +48. Experienced own activity rose a point to -10, while past employment lifted from -15 to -12.

Pricing intentions fell 2 points to a net 42% of firms intending to raise prices in the next 3 months. The average amount by which they intend to raise eased from 1.7% to 1.6%. In good news for the RBNZ, inflation expectations dropped markedly from 2.8% to 2.5%, likely impacted by the Q3 CPI print of 2.2% y/y.


October 2024

Business confidence rose another 5 points to +66 in October, while expected own activity ticked up 1 point to +46.

Experienced own activity lifted 8 points to -11, its highest level since March. Retail bucked the trend, giving up its recent gains. That may be related to the fall in consumer confidence seen this month. 

Pricing intentions lifted 1pt with a net 44% of firms intending to raise prices soon. The average amount by which they intend to raise them drifted up to 1.7%. Inflation expectations eased 0.1%pt to 2.8%. 


September 2024

Business confidence rose 10 points to +61 in September, while expected own activity lifted 8 points to +45.

Experienced own activity rose 4 points to -19, led higher by retail and construction, but experienced employment fell 5 points to -20. 

Pricing intentions rose 2 points to a net 43% of firms intending to raise prices soon. The average amount by which they intend to raise them was steady at 1.6%. Inflation expectations were flat at 2.9%. 


August 2024

Business confidence soared 23 points to +51 in August, the highest level in a decade. Expected own activity jumped 21 points to +37, a 7-year high. Experienced own activity rose just 1 point to -21, still very weak. 

The large increases in confidence and activity expectations (including employment and investment intentions) were evident already in the responses gathered at the very beginning of August. The roughly one third of responses that came in after the Reserve Bank cut the OCR didn’t change the results a great deal.

Pricing intentions rose 3 points to a net 41% of firms intending to raise their prices in the next three months. The amount by which they intend to raise them ticked up from 1.4% to 1.6%. Inflation expectations dipped from 3.2% to 2.9%, their first sub-3% read since July 2021.


July 2024

Business confidence jumped 21 points to +27 in July, and expected own activity lifted 4 points to +16. To be fair, these up/down responses are relative to an ever-weaker starting point (past own activity dropped 6 points to -24), so there’s a bit of a “well, can’t get any worse” vibe to it. 

Pricing intentions lifted 3 points to 38, but inflation expectations eased from 3.5% to 3.2%. Inflation indicators were softer in the later sample.


June 2024

Business confidence fell 5 points to +6 in June. Expected own activity was unchanged at +12, while past activity was flat at -18. Pricing intentions fell 7 points to 35, with a sharp fall in the expected magnitude of price increases as well. Cost expectations also dipped, and inflation expectations eased from 3.6% to 3.5%.


May 2024

Business confidence fell 4 points to +11 in May. Expected own activity fell 2 points to +12, and past own activity lifted 2 points to -18. Activity indicators improved for the manufacturing sector off weak levels, but were mixed to weaker elsewhere. There was a welcome easing in inflation indicators. Pricing intentions fell 5 points to 42 while inflation expectations eased from 3.8% to 3.6%.


April 2024

Business confidence fell 8 points to +15 in April. Expected own activity fell 9 points to +14, and past own activity dropped 13 points to -20. Pricing intentions increased 2 points to 47 while inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.8%. Cost and wage pressures remain very high.


March 2024

Business confidence fell 12 points to +23 in March. Expected own activity fell 7 points to +23. Past activity eased 2 points to -7. Pricing intentions eased a little and inflation expectations fell from 4.0% to 3.8%. Cost and wage pressures remain very high, however.


February 2024

Business confidence eased 2 points to +35 but expected own activity rose 4 points in February. Reported past activity has a good correlation to GDP. It rose 1 point this month but is still in the red at -5. Inflation expectations fell from 4.3% to 4.0%. Pricing intentions eased from 50% to 48%, continuing their sideways trend of recent months.


January 2024

Business confidence rose 4 points to +37 in January, while expected own activity fell 3 points to +26. The recent dramatic lift in residential construction gave up quite a bit of ground this month. Inflation expectations took a step lower, but the proportion of firms expecting to raise their prices remains stubbornly high.