ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is a monthly measure of consumer confidence across New Zealand households and how this affects their spending behaviour.

 

 

2024 editions

December 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence finally cracked triple figures in December, rising marginally from 99.8 to 100.2.

In a welcome sign for retailers, there was another sharp lift in the proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item.

Inflation expectations eased back 0.2%pts to 3.8%, where they’ve spent four of the past five months.


November 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumped 9 points in November to 99.8. Both the current and future conditions indexes lifted markedly.

Inflation expectations rose 0.2%pts to 4.0%. Expected house price inflation lifted from 3.4% to 3.7% and is trending higher.


October 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4 points in October to 91.2, following three months of improvement. Both the current and future conditions indexes declined. Inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.8%. Expected house price inflation lifted from 3.2% to 3.4%.


September 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3 points in September, its third straight month of improvement. At 95.1 it is still well below par, but it’s at its highest level since January 2022. The lift was driven by expectations about the future, rather than views of the here and now.

Inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.8%. Expected house price inflation lifted from 2.8% to 3.2%, led by the North Island.


August 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 4 points in August, on top of a 5-point lift last month. At 92.2 it is still well below its 10-year average (109), but also well off its lows. Both the current and future conditions indexes lifted, the latter by more. Inflation expectations ticked 0.1%pt higher to 3.8%. Expected house price inflation lifted from 2.4% to 2.8%.


July 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 5 points in July to 87.9. It’s still very low, but has clawed back about half the March-April fall that coincided with ‘recession’ headlines. The lift was driven by improving expectations rather than the here and now.

Inflation expectations fell half a percent to 3.7%, the lowest since September 2020. Expected house price inflation dropped a full percent to 2.4%, back around levels prevailing a year ago. 


June 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence eased 2 points in June. At 83, confidence is miles below the 20-year average of 114. Inflation expectations bounced from 3.8% back up to 4.2%. It’s volatile, but gradually trending lower. Expected house price inflation ticked up from 3.2% to 3.4%.


May 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence lifted 4 points in May, perhaps as the shock of the “recession” headlines wore off somewhat. That said, 84.9 is a very weak level, with the historical average sitting above 110. Possibly also contributing to the lift in confidence, inflation expectations eased from 4.4% to 3.8%, the lowest read since October 2020. Expected house price inflation eased from 3.5% to 3.2%.


April 2024

Consumer confidence deteriorated in April, led by a pessimistic turn in the forward-looking components of the survey. ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4 points to 82.1, close to lows seen during the Global Financial Crisis, but still slightly above the more recent pandemic lows. Wellington led the monthly deterioration in confidence and is the most downbeat region overall, with the lowest inflation expectations and the second-lowest willingness to buy a major household item. Nationwide, inflation expectations eased from 4.5% to 4.4%, while expected house price inflation lifted from 3.4% to 3.5%. 


March 2024

The steady improvement in consumer confidence over recent months took a blow this month. ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence fell 9 points in March to 86.4, with a fall across most questions, likely affected by recession headlines. Late-month responses were markedly weaker than those that preceded the GDP data. Inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.5%, while expected house price inflation fell from 4.1% to 3.4%. This series has no predictive power for house prices, but is a lens on the “wealth effect” on spending.


February 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose another 1 point in February to 94.5, driven by a lift in perceptions of future conditions. Inflation expectations lifted for a second month, up from 4.3% to 4.5%.


January 2024

ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose 1 point in January to 93.6. Perceptions of current conditions jumped, but confidence about the future fell. Inflation expectations bounced back, lifting from 3.9% to 4.3%.