ANZ Economic News
ANZ Economic News reviews the latest key events in the New Zealand economy. As well as one-off events, the reports regularly include information on labour market conditions, gross domestic product, balance of payments, official cash rate changes, and the Government's finances.
2025 editions
May
April
March
February
January
2024 editions
December
November
October
September
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January
2023 editions
December
20 December 2023: NZ Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2023 - Not much the wiser (PDF 428KB)
14 December 2023: NZ GDP Review - Weaker across the board (PDF 568KB)
8 December 2023: NZ GDP Preview - Headline above water; per-capita treading it (PDF 372KB)
6 December 2023: NZ Half-Year Update 2023 Preview: new team, new game plan (PDF 440KB)
5 December 2023: NZ Insight - Navigating the watch-worry-wait summer (PDF 648KB)
November
30 November 2023: NZ Forecast Update - Milk prices trend higher (PDF 284KB)
29 November 2023: RBNZ MPS Review - When hawks fly (PDF 744KB)
29 November 2023: NZ Insight - Labour market capacity indicators (PDF 1.11MB)
24 November 2023: NZ Insight: Coalition policy announcements (PDF 308KB)
24 November 2023: NZ Insight - New Government agriculture policy announcements (PDF 300KB)
17 November 2023: RBNZ MPS Preview and OCR Call Change (PDF 300KB)
15 November 2023: NZ Insight - New monthly price indexes (PDF 840KB)
10 November 2023: NZ Insight - What an oil price shock could mean for inflation (PDF 560KB)
1 November 2023: Labour market review - The ship has turned (PDF 624KB)
October
26 October 2023: Labour market preview - A gradual ascent (PDF 556KB)
26 October 2023: NZ Insight: macro impacts in New Zealand from an increase in global term rates (PDF 968KB)
19 October 2023: NZ Insight - Finding external balance (PDF 1.33MB)
17 October 2023: CPI and OCR call change - Progress buys time (PDF 616KB)
16 October 2023: NZ Election 2023 - Post-election macroeconomic musings (PDF 396KB)
12 October 2023: CPI Preview - Pouring fuel on the fire (PDF 724KB)
4 October 2023: RBNZ MPR Review - A more sustained period of time (PDF 288KB)
3 October 2023: NZIER QSBO - Traction meets supply recovery (PDF 572KB)
September
27 September 2023: RBNZ MPR Preview - More worries, more waiting (PDF 344KB)
21 September 2023: NZ GDP - What recession … but one looming? (PDF 600KB)
13 September 2023: NZ GDP Preview - Dead cat bounce (PDF 432KB)
12 September 2023: NZ PREFU 2023 - More debt, more bonds, more deficits (PDF 880KB)
5 September 2023: NZ PREFU 2023 Preview - Pre-election Update predictions (PDF 920KB)
August
16 August 2023: RBNZ MPS Review - Wheels slipping a little? (PDF 708KB)
10 August 2023: Milk price revised down further (PDF 288KB)
9 August 2023: RBNZ MPS Preview - A placeholder MPS (PDF 584KB)
2 August 2023: Labour market review - relatives and absolutes (PDF 616KB)
July
26 July 2023: NZ ETS - Change of price and volumes settings (PDF 372KB)
26 July 2023: Labour market preview - A step towards sustainable levels (PDF 500KB)
19 July 2023: Milk price forecast drops sharply (PDF 284KB)
19 July 2023: CPI Review - Not a good news day after all (PDF 604KB)
13 July 2023: CPI Preview - Running before we walk (PDF 700KB)
12 July 2023: RBNZ MPR Review - Nothing to see here (PDF 272KB)
5 July 2023: RBNZ MPR Preview - Texas Hold’em (PDF 688KB)
4 July 2023: NZIER QSBO - Capacity frees up, price signals still elevated (PDF 560KB)
June
19 June 2023: NZ ETS Review - Public consultation on options (PDF 296KB)
16 June 2023: NZ Forecast Update - The much-needed adjustment (PDF 616KB)
15 June 2023: NZ GDP - Cyclone nudges NZ into recession (PDF 548KB)
14 June 2023: NZ Balance of Payments - The slightly less wonky economy (PDF 696KB)
9 June 2023: Milk price forecasts trimmed further (PDF 272KB)
8 June 2023: NZ GDP Preview - Many moving parts (PDF 508KB)
May
24 May 2023: RBNZ MPS Review - As you were (PDF 824KB)
18 May 2023: NZ Budget 2023 brings the bonds (PDF 500KB)
17 May 2023: RBNZ MPS Preview - 25bp, plus one more for luck in July (PDF 588KB)
10 May 2023: Budget Preview - No frills and no free lunch (PDF 524KB)
3 May 2023: Labour market - Still super-tight in Q1 (PDF 664KB)
April
28 April 2023: Labour market preview - Yet to turn … but it’s coming (PDF 640KB)
20 April 2023: CPI Review - Relatively good, absolutely bad (PDF 708KB)
17 April 2023: CPI Preview - The price is wrong (PDF 700KB)
5 April 2023: RBNZ MPR Review - Take that (PDF 328KB)
4 April 2023: NZIER QSBO - Going the right way for the RBNZ, slowly (PDF 608KB)
March
28 March 2023: RBNZ MPR Preview - Decelerating hikes in a decelerating economy (PDF 588KB)
24 March 2023: Milk price forecasts revised down further (PDF 344KB)
23 March 2023: NZ ETS Review - Reduce emissions not just offset (PDF 308KB)
17 March 2023: NZ Forecast Update - Getting an extension (PDF 820KB)
16 March 2023: NZ GDP Review - Something for everyone (PDF 716KB)
15 March 2023: NZ Balance of Payments - Out of balance (PDF 476KB)
10 March 2023: NZ GDP Preview - Payback (PDF 416KB)
7 March 2023: NZ Insight - Inflation rotation (PDF 1.19MB)
February
28 February 2023: NZ Insight - Second wind for the labour market? (PDF 1.01MB)
16 February 2023: NZ Insight - Inflationary risks from Cyclone Gabrielle (PDF 692KB)
15 February 2023: RBNZ MPS Preview - Still resolute (PDF 580KB)
8 February 2023: Milk price forecasts revised down (PDF 344KB)
1 February 2023: Labour market - Cracks appearing (PDF 712KB)
January
31 January 2023: NZ Insight - Early thoughts on the Upper North Island floods (PDF 492KB)
26 January 2023: Labour market preview - Echoes of previous momentum (PDF 636KB)
25 January 2023: CPI and OCR call change - Much better than feared (PDF 632KB)
19 January 2023: CPI Preview - The devil in the detail (PDF 740KB)
17 January 2023: NZIER QSBO - Traction or temporary? (PDF 636KB)
2022 editions
December
15 December 2022: Q3 GDP - One last hurrah? (PDF 680KB)
14 December 2022: HYEFU 2022 - Reprioritising (PDF 440KB)
9 December 2022: Q3 GDP Preview - Economic expansion; record-breaking deficit (PDF 412KB)
8 December 2022: ANZ releases milk price forecast for 2023-24 season (PDF 352KB)
6 December 2022: Half-Year Update 2022 Preview - when less is more (PDF 540KB)
November
30 November 2022: NZ Insight - Risks to the OCR outlook (PDF 896KB)
29 November 2022: NZ Insight - RBA/RBNZ policy divergence back in the spotlight (PDF 1.24MB)
23 November 2022: RBNZ MPS Review and OCR Call Change - Hope is not a strategy (PDF 780KB)
15 November 2022: RBNZ MPS Preview - No low-risk options at this point (PDF 476KB)
10 November 2022: RBNZ Formulation and Implementation of Monetary Policy Review (PDF 356KB)
7 November 2022: NZ Insight - our record breaking labour market (PDF 1.26MB)
2 November 2022: Labour market - Wage growth outstrips inflation (PDF 708KB)
October
28 October 2022: Labour market preview - Record wage growth beckons (PDF 616KB)
18 October 2022: CPI and OCR call change - 75s now expected for Nov and Feb (PDF 676KB)
13 October 2022: CPI Preview - Past the peak? (PDF 696KB)
11 October 2022: Agricultural emissions pricing recommendations (PDF 316KB)
5 October 2022: RBNZ MPR Review - Sticking to the plan, keeping options open (PDF 340KB)
4 October 2022: NZIER QSBO - Too much inflation in the system (PDF 648KB)
September
28 September 2022: RBNZ MPR Preview - Locked and loaded (PDF 448KB)
16 September 2022: OCR Call Change: More work to do (PDF 1.04MB)
15 September 2022: Q2 GDP Review: Stronger, but more noise than signal (PDF 808KB)
9 September 2022: Q2 GDP Preview: Weaker, but not a game changer for the OCR (PDF 460KB)
6 September 2022: NZ Insight - The inflation outlook and the balance of risks (PDF 624KB)
5 September 2022: NZ Insight - 2020 hindsight (PDF 980KB)
2 September 2022: Farmgate milk price forecast revised up (PDF 360KB)
August
30 August 2022: NZ Agri Insight - Feeding the world sustainably (PDF 980KB)
17 August 2022: RBNZ MPS Review - Toru (PDF 780KB)
10 August 2022: NZ Insight - the Australian labour market and the RBNZ (PDF 940KB)
10 August 2022: RBNZ MPS Preview - Hawkeye (PDF 576KB)
3 August 2022: Labour market - Unemployment rises, but wages soar (PDF 700KB)
July
28 July 2022: Labour market preview - The biggest constraint (PDF 624KB)
18 July 2022: CPI Q2 2022 and OCR call change (PDF 580KB)
14 July 2022: CPI Preview - More inflation pain (PDF 688KB)
13 July 2022: RBNZ MPR Review - A copy-paste from the May MPS (PDF 372KB)
6 July 2022: NZ Insight - The low consumer confidence puzzle (PDF 1.30MB)
6 July 2022: RBNZ MPR Preview - One of the easier decisions (PDF 852KB)
5 July 2022: NZIER QSBO - Inflation blues (PDF 644KB)
June
16 June 2022: Q1 GDP - more COVID noise (PDF 836KB)
10 June 2022: Q1 GDP Preview - no capacity (PDF 424KB)
8 June 2022: He Waka Eke Noa recommendations for pricing agricultural emissions (PDF 324KB)
May
31 May 2022: NZ Agri Insight - Global food crisis to worsen (PDF 1.51MB)
25 May 2022: RBNZ MPS Review - On the warpath (PDF 604KB)
19 May 2022: Budget Review - Big Budget (PDF 448KB)
17 May 2022: NZ Insight - Emissions Reduction Plan (PDF 336KB)
17 May 2022: RBNZ MPS Preview - Take 2% (PDF 404KB)
12 May 2022: Budget Preview - Catch (Budget) 22 (PDF 452KB)
6 May 2022: Farmgate milk price forecasts revised down (PDF 360KB)
4 May 2022: Labour market - wage growth accelerates (PDF 656KB)
3 May 2022: NZ Insight - New fiscal rules (PDF 496KB)
April
28 April 2022: Labour market preview - May the labour force be with you (PDF 684KB)
21 April 2022: CPI Review - Domestic inflation intensifies (PDF 576KB)
13 April 2022: CPI Preview - Uncertain, but certainly too high (PDF 696KB)
13 April 2022: RBNZ MPR Review - Giving inflation no quarter (PDF 332KB)
12 April 2022: NZ Insight - How widespread is labour market tightness? (PDF 964KB)
12 April 2022: NZIER QSBO - Diminished capacity (PDF 648KB)
6 April 2022: RBNZ MPR Preview - Nifty 50 (PDF 432KB)
March
23 March 2022: NZ GDP Forecast Update - walking the tightrope (PDF 464KB)
22 March 2022: NZ Insight - the RBNZ’s inflation expectations headache (PDF 836KB)
17 March 2022: Q4 GDP - Getting real (PDF 572KB)
14 March 2022: NZ temp fuel tax changes knock 0.5% off Q2 CPI (PDF 472KB)
10 March 2022: Q4 GDP Preview - Rebound 3.5 (PDF 400KB)
9 March 2022: Farmgate milk price forecast revised up (PDF 352KB)
8 March 2022: NZ OCR Call Change: back-to-back 50bp hikes in April and May (PDF 472KB)
8 March 2022: CPI Forecast Update - inflation now forecast to peak at 7.4% in Q2 (PDF 664KB)
4 March 2022: How is NZ's agri sector impacted by the Russian invasion (PDF 516KB)
1 March 2022: The Reopening II – shifting economic sands (PDF 684KB)
February
23 February 2022: RBNZ MPS Review - A hawkish hike (PDF 620KB)
15 February 2022: NZ Insight - Terms of trade: risks and opportunities (PDF 91KB)
15 February 2022: RBNZ MPS Preview - Hikes coming, "steady" or not... (PDF 347KB)
3 February 2022: Labour market forecast update - applying pressure (PDF 668KB)
2 February 2022: Labour market review - Another record low (PDF 732KB)
1 February 2022: Carbon markets 102 - what drives the carbon price? (PDF 440KB)
1 February 2022: Farmgate milk price forecast revised up (PDF 324KB)
January
27 January 2022: Labour market preview - Unemployment - how low can you go? (PDF 604KB)
27 January 2022: CPI Review - Cost of living crunch (PDF 600KB)
20 January 2022: CPI Preview - High, but how high? (PDF 584KB)
19 January 2022: NZ OCR Call Change - 3% by April 2023 (PDF 688KB)
18 January 2022: NZIER QSBO - Fretting about inflation and Delta (PDF 676KB)