ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4 points to 96.0 in January.  The proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item, the best retail indicator, dropped a sharp 15 points to -16. Inflation expectations were little changed at 3.9%. They have been very stable in recent months. 

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence finally cracked triple figures in December, rising marginally from 99.8 to 100.2.

In a welcome sign for retailers, there was another sharp lift in the proportion of households thinking it’s a good time to buy a major household item.

Inflation expectations eased back 0.2%pts to 3.8%, where they’ve spent four of the past five months.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence jumped 9 points in November to 99.8. Both the current and future conditions indexes lifted markedly.

Inflation expectations rose 0.2%pts to 4.0%. Expected house price inflation lifted from 3.4% to 3.7% and is trending higher.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4 points in October to 91.2, following three months of improvement. Both the current and future conditions indexes declined. Inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.8%. Expected house price inflation lifted from 3.2% to 3.4%.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3 points in September, its third straight month of improvement. At 95.1 it is still well below par, but it’s at its highest level since January 2022. The lift was driven by expectations about the future, rather than views of the here and now.

Inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.8%. Expected house price inflation lifted from 2.8% to 3.2%, led by the North Island.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 4 points in August, on top of a 5-point lift last month. At 92.2 it is still well below its 10-year average (109), but also well off its lows. Both the current and future conditions indexes lifted, the latter by more. Inflation expectations ticked 0.1%pt higher to 3.8%. Expected house price inflation lifted from 2.4% to 2.8%.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 5 points in July to 87.9. It’s still very low, but has clawed back about half the March-April fall that coincided with ‘recession’ headlines. The lift was driven by improving expectations rather than the here and now.

Inflation expectations fell half a percent to 3.7%, the lowest since September 2020. Expected house price inflation dropped a full percent to 2.4%, back around levels prevailing a year ago. 

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence eased 2 points in June. At 83, confidence is miles below the 20-year average of 114. Inflation expectations bounced from 3.8% back up to 4.2%. It’s volatile, but gradually trending lower. Expected house price inflation ticked up from 3.2% to 3.4%.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence lifted 4 points in May, perhaps as the shock of the “recession” headlines wore off somewhat. That said, 84.9 is a very weak level, with the historical average sitting above 110. Possibly also contributing to the lift in confidence, inflation expectations eased from 4.4% to 3.8%, the lowest read since October 2020. Expected house price inflation eased from 3.5% to 3.2%.

Consumer confidence deteriorated in April, led by a pessimistic turn in the forward-looking components of the survey. ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4 points to 82.1, close to lows seen during the Global Financial Crisis, but still slightly above the more recent pandemic lows. Wellington led the monthly deterioration in confidence and is the most downbeat region overall, with the lowest inflation expectations and the second-lowest willingness to buy a major household item. Nationwide, inflation expectations eased from 4.5% to 4.4%, while expected house price inflation lifted from 3.4% to 3.5%. 

The steady improvement in consumer confidence over recent months took a blow this month. ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence fell 9 points in March to 86.4, with a fall across most questions, likely affected by recession headlines. Late-month responses were markedly weaker than those that preceded the GDP data. Inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.5%, while expected house price inflation fell from 4.1% to 3.4%. This series has no predictive power for house prices, but is a lens on the “wealth effect” on spending.

ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose another 1 point in February to 94.5, driven by a lift in perceptions of future conditions. Inflation expectations lifted for a second month, up from 4.3% to 4.5%.

ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose 1 point in January to 93.6. Perceptions of current conditions jumped, but confidence about the future fell. Inflation expectations bounced back, lifting from 3.9% to 4.3%.

December 2023: A hint of Christmas cheer (PDF 780KB)
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose 1 point in December to 93.1, with a small tick up in both current and future conditions. Inflation expectations dropped from 4.6% to 3.9%, likely impacted by cheaper fuel prices. This is the first sub-4% read since October 2020.

November 2023: Better, but still subdued (PDF 768KB)
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose 4 points in November to 91.9, still a very subdued level. The biggest jump was in the question about whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item. However, insofar as this question has overstated headwinds to retail spending in the high inflation environment, a rebound (to still-low levels) is unlikely to mean that the pressure on retailers is about to ease. Inflation expectations were little changed at 4.6%.

October 2023: Creeping higher (PDF 752KB)
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose 2 points in October to 88.1, with mixed moves across the questions. By far the biggest jump was in the question about expected economic conditions “in NZ as a whole”. Tellingly, the key question of whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item, the best retail indicator, fell 6 points to -38%. Inflation expectations rose 0.3ppt to 4.5%, undoing last month’s fall.

September 2023: Not much spring in their step (PDF 752KB)
Consumer confidence rose 1 point in September to 86.4, with small improvements across most questions. The exception was whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item (down 1 point to -32%). Inflation expectations fell 0.4ppt to 4.2%, its lowest read since March 2021. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index lifted slightly in September, but remains at very low levels. 

August 2023: In limbo (PDF 732KB)
Consumer confidence rose 1 point in August to 85.0, with the lift driven by an increase in the question of whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item, which rose from -39% to -31%. Inflation expectations were virtually unchanged at 4.6%.

July 2023: More spending caution evident (PDF 676KB)
Consumer confidence fell 2 points in July to 83.7, with the fall driven by the question of whether it’s a good time to buy a major household item, which fell from -27% to -39%. That doesn’t bode well for retailers. Inflation expectations bounced back almost completely from their sharp fall last month, rising from 4.3% back up to 4.7% – still trending lower, however, and well off their high of over 6% in late-2021.

June 2023: Inflation and rate relief (PDF 628KB)
Consumer confidence lifted 6 points in June to 85.5, still a very low level, but the highest read since January last year. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, rose 7 points to 27. Inflation expectations dropped sharply from 4.8% to 4.3%. Consumers don’t get to set prices but they are half of the wage-negotiation process, so the RBNZ will be very pleased to see that.

May 2023: Inflation expectations fall (PDF 732KB)
Consumer confidence was basically flat in May at 79.2, an extremely low level. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, fell 3 points to 34. Inflation expectations eased from 5.2% to 4.8%. That’s only the second time since mid-2021 that they’ve dipped under the 5% mark.

April 2023: Not much autumn cheer (PDF 688KB)
Consumer confidence lifted 1 point in April to 79.3, still an extremely low level.
The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, lifted 1 point to ‑31. Inflation expectations eased from 5.4% to 5.2%. They have been bouncing around a narrow range for the last six months.

March 2023: Limbo (PDF 668KB)

Consumer confidence eased 2 points in March to 77.7. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, lifted 3 points to 32%, still very low. Inflation expectations rose from 5.2% to 5.4%. That’s the highest read in nine months. That won’t please the RBNZ, though they put more weight on business expectations.

February 2023: Still downbeat (PDF 680KB)

Consumer confidence eased 3 points in February to 79.8. From a glass-half-full perspective that’s still above its December low of 73.8, but the level is very low. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, fell 7 points to 35%, the lowest level since the 2020 lockdown. Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.2%.

January 2023: A bounce off extreme lows (PDF 684KB)

Consumer confidence jumped 9 points in January to 83.4, more than undoing its December fall. The lift was driven by the forward-looking questions. The level is still very low. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, lifted 5 points to 28%. Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.3%.

December 2022: Spooked (PDF 676KB)
Consumer confidence fell 7 points in December to a new low of 73.8. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item fell 2 points to 33%. Inflation expectations dipped to 5.2%, from 5.3% last month.

November 2022: Feeling the strain (PDF 640KB)
Consumer confidence fell 5 points in November to 80.7. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item fell 9 points to 31%. Inflation expectations lifted to 5.3%, from 5.0% last month.

October 2022: Feeling flat (PDF 696KB)
Consumer confidence was unchanged in October at 85.4. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, the best indicator for retail spending, rose 3 points to 22%. Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.0%, versus 5.1% last month. It’s very unusual for businesses’ inflation expectations to sit higher than consumer inflation expectations.

September 2022: Steady as she goes (PDF 668KB)
Consumer confidence was unchanged in September at 85.4. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, the best indicator for retail spending, fell 8 points to ‑25, where it was two months ago. Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.1%, versus 5.0% last month.

August 2022: Mortgage holders holding back (PDF 704KB)
Consumer confidence lifted 3 points in August to 85.4. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, the best indicator for retail spending, lifted 8 points to 17, its highest read since January (though still very low). A gap is emerging in this indicator between those with mortgages and those without. Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.0%, versus 4.9% last month.

July 2022: Bitter sweet (PDF 728KB)
Consumer confidence lifted 1.4 points in July to 81.9, still very low. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, the best indicator for retail spending, fell 4.4 points to 25, unwinding half of the previous month’s bounce. Inflation expectations eased from 5.6% to 4.9%, the lowest rate in a year. That’s a win, as it shows monetary tightening is gaining traction.

June 2022: Adjusting for inflation (PDF 712KB)
Consumer confidence fell 1.8 points in June to 80.5, a touch above its record low, but still deep within the “something to worry about” zone. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, the best indicator for spending, bounced 9 points to 21. That’s a decent bounce, but it’s too early to call this a recovery. This indicator is still dire in an absolute sense. Inflation expectations reversed last month’s decline, up from 5.1% to 5.6%. Clearly, the RBNZ’s war on inflation isn’t won yet.

May 2022: Closing the wallets (PDF 720KB)
Consumer confidence fell 2 points in May to 82.3, above its record low of 77.9 in March, but still dire. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, the best indicator for spending, fell 7 points to -30. In welcome news for the RBNZ, inflation expectations fell from 5.6% to 5.1%.

April 2022: Picking itself up off the floor (PDF 672KB)
Consumer confidence lifted 6 points in April to 84.4, off its record low but still extremely pessimistic. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item inched 3 points higher to a still-grim -23. Inflation expectations fell back to 5.6%. House price inflation expectations eased from 2.7% to just 1.7%.

March 2022: From bad to worse (PDF 680KB)
Consumer confidence dropped another 4 points in March to 77.9, a fresh record low in data that data began in 2004. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item fell another 5 points to -26. Inflation expectations rose to 6%. House price inflation expectations eased from 4.8% to 2.7%, and are lowest in Wellington (0.7%).

February 2022: Darkest before the dawn? (PDF 636KB)
Consumer confidence plunged 16 points in February to 81.7, its lowest level since the data began in 2004. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item fell 17 points to -21. Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.6%. House price inflation expectations eased from 5.3% to 4.8%.

January 2022: Steady ahead of the Omicron storm (PDF 612KB)
Consumer confidence was unchanged at 98 in January. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item fell 4 points to -4, back in the red. Inflation expectations drifted slightly higher to 5.8%. House price inflation expectations were unchanged at 5.3%.